It goes something like this:
"The gymnast who performs the most difficulty will win the all-around competition."
In other words, gymnastics fans tend to believe that D-scores are stronger predictors of a gymnast's final AA rank than E-scores.
I was curious about this, so I did some sexy data analysis. I ran some multivariate regressions, and here's what I found…
TL;DR:
- When it comes to final rankings in the all-around competition, both D and E scores are statistically significant.
- So, the question really is, Which is a stronger predictor of your all-around rank?
- The answer to that question depends on your sex.
- For the men, the D score is a stronger predictor of your final all-around rank.
- For the women, the E score is a stronger predictor of your final all-around rank.
- You can see this in the charts of relative importances below.
For those who aren't used to looking at charts of relative importances…
Look at the charts as you would look at a bar graph. See which bar is higher than the other – the D bar or the E bar.
All data comes from the 2014 Worlds AA finals.
MAG
For the men, the size of the D matters.
For the super stats nerds out here, here's everything you need to know:
| B | SE | t | Beta | p | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B0 | 242.6414 | ||||
| D | -2.5106 | 0.1395 | -17.99 | -0.6744886 | 3.08e-14 |
| E | -2.7293 | 0.1819 | -15.01 | -0.5625657 | 1.07e-12 |
WAG
For the women, the size of the D matters. But what you do with it matters even more.
For the super stats nerds out here, here's everything you need to know:
| B | SE | t | Beta | p | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B0 | 180.6621 | ||||
| D | -3.0248 | 0.2415 | -12.52 | -0.5798 | 3.30e-11 |
| E | -3.0400 | 0.2120 | -14.34 | -0.6640 | 2.54e-12 |
Discuss!
Gymternet, I need your thoughts.
Why do you think that E-scores are a stronger predictor for the women, while D-scores are a stronger predictor for the men?
In the meantime, men, good luck trying to get a bigger D. It ain't easy.
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